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Teruel vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
15:00
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
4/4/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Pinilla
33%
Real Murcia
model favours
32%35%33%
0–0
likely score
78%
under 2.5 goals
31%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel32%
×Draw35%
Real Murcia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.80
Real Murcia
0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
67%
Teruel or Real Murcia
65%
Draw or Real Murcia
68%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
10%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
55%
Teruel 2+ goals
19%
Teruel 3+ goals
5%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
56%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
20%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
49%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Teruel scores more
32%
level
35%
Real Murcia scores more
33%

Real Murcia at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
Murcia
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel face Real Murcia (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Teruel hosting Real Murcia. Match starts April 4, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Teruel host Real Murcia at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.