Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teruel vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
8/30/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Pinilla
40%
Teruel
model favours
40%34%26%

Teruel and Real Madrid II have never met before

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
76%
under 2.5 goals
32%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel40%
×Draw34%
Real Madrid II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.96
Real Madrid II
0.72

Teruel creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
74%
Teruel or Real Madrid II
66%
Draw or Real Madrid II
60%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
15%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
62%
Teruel 2+ goals
25%
Teruel 3+ goals
7%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
51%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
16%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
60%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teruel scores more
40%
level
34%
Real Madrid II scores more
26%

Teruel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
II
LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel face Real Madrid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Teruel hosting Real Madrid II. Match starts August 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Teruel host Real Madrid II at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.