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Teruel vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
16:00
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
3/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Pinilla
41%
Teruel
model favours
41%36%23%

Teruel have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
81%
under 2.5 goals
27%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel41%
×Draw36%
Gimnastic23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.91
Gimnastic
0.59

Teruel creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Gimnastic
0.72

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Gimnastic
1.18

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
77%
Teruel or Gimnastic
64%
Draw or Gimnastic
59%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
15%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
60%
Teruel 2+ goals
23%
Teruel 3+ goals
6%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
45%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
12%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
65%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Teruel scores more
41%
level
36%
Gimnastic scores more
23%

Teruel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
Gimnastic
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel vs Gimnastic — Match Preview

Teruel face Gimnastic on March 21, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teruel host Gimnastic at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.