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Teruel vs FC Cartagena — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
16:00
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
12/20/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Pinilla
43%
Teruel
model favours
43%37%20%
0–0
likely score
83%
under 2.5 goals
24%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel43%
×Draw37%
FC Cartagena20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.90
FC Cartagena
0.52

Teruel creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
FC Cartagena
0.58

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
FC Cartagena
1.16

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–113%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
17%83%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
80%
Teruel or FC Cartagena
63%
Draw or FC Cartagena
57%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
16%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
59%
Teruel 2+ goals
23%
Teruel 3+ goals
6%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
41%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
10%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
68%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.90

FC Cartagena attack 0.58 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teruel scores more
43%
level
37%
FC Cartagena scores more
20%

Teruel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
Cartagena
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel vs FC Cartagena — Match Preview

Teruel face FC Cartagena on December 20, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teruel host FC Cartagena at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.