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Teruel vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
15:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
5/16/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Pinilla
37%
Teruel
model favours
37%33%30%

Teruel sit 13, Atlético Madrid II 3 in the table

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
74%
under 2.5 goals
35%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel37%
×Draw33%
Atlético Madrid II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.95
Atlético Madrid II
0.83

Teruel creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
70%
Teruel or Atlético Madrid II
67%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
63%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
61%
Teruel 2+ goals
25%
Teruel 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Teruel scores more
37%
level
33%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
30%

Teruel at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
II
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel vs Atlético Madrid II — Match Preview

Teruel face Atlético Madrid II on May 16, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teruel host Atlético Madrid II at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.