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Teruel vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
16:00
Antequera
Antequera
1/3/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Pinilla
38%
Teruel
model favours
38%34%28%
0–0
likely score
75%
under 2.5 goals
33%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel38%
×Draw34%
Antequera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.95
Antequera
0.76

Teruel creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Antequera
1.05

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Antequera
1.26

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
72%
Teruel or Antequera
66%
Draw or Antequera
62%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
14%
Antequera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
61%
Teruel 2+ goals
25%
Teruel 3+ goals
7%
Antequera 1+ goals
53%
Antequera 2+ goals
18%
Antequera 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
58%
Antequera (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Antequera attack 1.05 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Teruel scores more
38%
level
34%
Antequera scores more
28%

Teruel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
Antequera
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel vs Antequera — Match Preview

Teruel face Antequera on January 3, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teruel host Antequera at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.