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Ternana U19 vs Perugia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Ternana U19
Ternana U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Perugia U19
Perugia U19
11/25/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 9Stadio Moreno Gubbiotti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ternana U1948%
×Draw23%
Perugia U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ternana U19
1.80
Perugia U19
1.37

Ternana U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ternana U19
1.72
Perugia U19
1.18

allows per match

Ternana U19
1.56
Perugia U19
1.88

finishing

Ternana U19+0.00on par
Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ternana U19 or draw
71%
Ternana U19 or Perugia U19
77%
Draw or Perugia U19
52%

Winning margin

Ternana U19 wins by 2+
26%
Perugia U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ternana U19 1+ goals
83%
Ternana U19 2+ goals
54%
Ternana U19 3+ goals
27%
Perugia U19 1+ goals
75%
Perugia U19 2+ goals
40%
Perugia U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ternana U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Perugia U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana U19 attack 1.72 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Ternana U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ternana U19 scores more
48%
level
23%
Perugia U19 scores more
29%

Ternana U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ternana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Ternana U19 2–1 Perugia U19

Ternana U19 beat Perugia U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Moreno Gubbiotti in Narni.