Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ter Leede vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ter Leede
Ter Leede
FT
4 – 3
VVOG
VVOG
12/7/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 15Sportpark De Roodemolen (Sassenheim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ter Leede46%
×Draw22%
VVOG31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ter Leede
1.91
VVOG
1.54

Ter Leede creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ter Leede
1.41
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Ter Leede
1.73
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Ter Leede+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ter Leede ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ter Leede or draw
69%
Ter Leede or VVOG
78%
Draw or VVOG
54%

Winning margin

Ter Leede wins by 2+
26%
VVOG wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ter Leede 1+ goals
85%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
57%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
30%
VVOG 1+ goals
79%
VVOG 2+ goals
45%
VVOG 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ter Leede (draw refunded)
60%
VVOG (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ter Leede at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ter Leede attack 1.41 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.91

VVOG attack 1.35 + Ter Leede defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ter Leede scores more
46%
level
22%
VVOG scores more
31%

Ter Leede at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ter Leede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ter Leede 4 – 3 VVOG

Ter Leede beat VVOG 4-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Roodemolen (Sassenheim).