Teplice 1–5 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Teplice

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Slavia Praha

T. Vondrášek 52'

T. Souček 90+2'

N. Stanciu 67'

J. Hušbauer 44'

M. van Buren 20'

J. Zmrhal 12'

7/21/2019

Czech Liga · Round 2Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Teplice25%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepliceExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.57

Teplice

1.04

Slavia Praha

1.57

Slavia Praha creates 51% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 121 away

1.22

creates per match

1.95

1.19

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Teplice

1.22

Slavia Praha

1.95

allows per match

Teplice

1.19

Slavia Praha

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Teplice or draw

50%

Teplice or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

75%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+

9%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals

65%

Teplice 2+ goals

28%

Teplice 3+ goals

9%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

79%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

46%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)

34%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Slavia Praha attack 1.95 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Teplice scores more

25%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

50%

Slavia Praha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

19'

20'

23'

44'

46'

46'

46'

E. Nazarov← D. Trubač

46'

P. Vyhnal← I. Paradin

52'

T. Vondrášek

56'

David Hovorka

62'

N. Stanciu← J. Hušbauer

66'

Evgeny Nazarov

67'

N. Stanciu

70'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal← M. van Buren

74'

A. Ljevaković← T. Kučera

76'

A. Král← Ibrahim Traore

90+2'

T. Souček

Statistics

TepliceSlavia

Overview

2Corners10

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Czech Liga: Teplice 1–5 Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Teplice 5-1 in Czech Liga on July 21, 2019.

Goals: J. Zmrhal (12'), M. van Buren (20'), J. Hušbauer (44'), T. Vondrášek (52'), N. Stanciu (67'), T. Souček (90+2').

The match was played at Na Stínadlech in Teplice.

Teplice vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Czech Liga: Teplice 1–5 Slavia Praha