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Teplice vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Teplice
Teplice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
7/22/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Teplice32%
×Draw27%
Plzen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice
1.16
Plzen
1.33

Plzen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 119 away

creates per match

Teplice
1.22
Plzen
1.48

allows per match

Teplice
1.19
Plzen
1.10

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Teplice or draw
59%
Teplice or Plzen
73%
Draw or Plzen
68%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+
13%
Plzen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals
69%
Teplice 2+ goals
32%
Teplice 3+ goals
11%
Plzen 1+ goals
74%
Plzen 2+ goals
38%
Plzen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)
44%
Plzen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Plzen attack 1.48 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Teplice scores more
32%
level
27%
Plzen scores more
41%

Plzen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Teplice 1–0 Plzen

Teplice beat Plzen 1-0 in Czech Liga on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Teplice.