Teplice 1–0 Mlada Boleslav: Result & Stats

Teplice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mlada Boleslav

11/4/2023

Czech Liga · Round 14AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Teplice42%

×Draw26%

Mlada Boleslav32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepliceExpected goals in this matchMlada Boleslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Teplice

1.42

Mlada Boleslav

1.21

Teplice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 120 away

1.22

creates per match

1.23

1.19

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Teplice

1.22

Mlada Boleslav

1.23

allows per match

Teplice

1.19

Mlada Boleslav

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Mlada Boleslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Teplice or draw

68%

Teplice or Mlada Boleslav

74%

Draw or Mlada Boleslav

58%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+

20%

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals

76%

Teplice 2+ goals

41%

Teplice 3+ goals

17%

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

70%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

34%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)

57%

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Teplice scores more

42%

level

26%

Mlada Boleslav scores more

32%

Teplice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff