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Teplice II vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Teplice II
Teplice II
CANC
09:00
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
4/25/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 13Umělé trávě na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Teplice II49%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice II
1.78
Sokol Živanice
1.28

Teplice II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

creates per match

Teplice II
1.68
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Teplice II
1.42
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Teplice II+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice II ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Teplice II or draw
72%
Teplice II or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
51%

Winning margin

Teplice II wins by 2+
27%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Teplice II 1+ goals
83%
Teplice II 2+ goals
53%
Teplice II 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
37%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Teplice II (draw refunded)
64%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice II attack 1.68 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Teplice II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Teplice II scores more
49%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
28%

Teplice II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Teplice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Teplice II host Sokol Živanice

April 25, 2021: Teplice II take on Sokol Živanice in 3. liga - CFL B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Teplice II host Sokol Živanice at Umělé trávě na Stínadlech.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.