Teplice II 1–1 Slovan Liberec II: Result & Stats

Teplice II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slovan Liberec II

11/12/2023

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Umělé trávě na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Teplice II47%

×Draw23%

Slovan Liberec II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teplice IIExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.45

Teplice II

1.86

Slovan Liberec II

1.45

Teplice II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

1.68

creates per match

1.48

1.42

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Teplice II

1.68

Slovan Liberec II

1.48

allows per match

Teplice II

1.42

Slovan Liberec II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teplice II+0.00on par

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice II ↓

Slovan Liberec II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Teplice II or draw

70%

Teplice II or Slovan Liberec II

77%

Draw or Slovan Liberec II

53%

Winning margin

Teplice II wins by 2+

26%

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Teplice II 1+ goals

84%

Teplice II 2+ goals

55%

Teplice II 3+ goals

28%

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals

77%

Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals

42%

Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Teplice II (draw refunded)

61%

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

Slovan Liberec II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice II attack 1.68 + Slovan Liberec II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.86

Slovan Liberec II attack 1.48 + Teplice II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Teplice II scores more

47%

level

23%

Slovan Liberec II scores more

30%

Teplice II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Teplice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff