Tepelena 4–3 Memaliaj: Result & Stats | League #513

Tepelena

FT

4 – 3

Memaliaj

11/11/2018

League #513 · Group B - 8Stadiumi Sabaudin Shehu (Tepelenë)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tepelena44%

×Draw22%

Memaliaj34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepelenaExpected goals in this matchMemaliaj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.68

Tepelena

1.92

Memaliaj

1.68

Tepelena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

2.09

creates per match

1.63

1.73

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Tepelena

2.09

Memaliaj

1.63

allows per match

Tepelena

1.73

Memaliaj

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tepelena+0.00on par

Memaliaj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepelena ↓

Memaliaj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tepelena or draw

66%

Tepelena or Memaliaj

78%

Draw or Memaliaj

56%

Winning margin

Tepelena wins by 2+

24%

Memaliaj wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tepelena 1+ goals

85%

Tepelena 2+ goals

57%

Tepelena 3+ goals

30%

Memaliaj 1+ goals

81%

Memaliaj 2+ goals

50%

Memaliaj 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tepelena (draw refunded)

56%

Memaliaj (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepelena at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Memaliaj away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepelena attack 2.09 + Memaliaj defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.92

Memaliaj attack 1.63 + Tepelena defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tepelena scores more

44%

level

22%

Memaliaj scores more

34%

Tepelena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tepelena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff