Tenerife 1–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

Míchel 44' (pen)

Simón Moreno 90+6', 82'

9/19/2021

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Tenerife47%

×Draw28%

Mirandes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.89

Tenerife

1.33

Mirandes

0.89

Tenerife creates 49% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 149 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

0.78

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tenerife

1.18

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Tenerife

0.78

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

75%

Tenerife or Mirandes

72%

Draw or Mirandes

53%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

22%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

74%

Tenerife 2+ goals

38%

Tenerife 3+ goals

15%

Mirandes 1+ goals

59%

Mirandes 2+ goals

22%

Mirandes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

65%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 155 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.18 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Tenerife defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tenerife scores more

47%

level

28%

Mirandes scores more

25%

Tenerife at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Míchel

Tenerife · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

19'

23'

43'

44'

MíchelPenalty

46'

S. Moore← J. Mellot

46'

Iñigo Vicente← Rementeria

46'

Iago López← Sergio Carreira

60'

Brugui← H. Hassan

65'

Simón Moreno← Alejandro Marqués

71'

Jamelli← Víctor Mollejo

80'

Pablo Larrea← Elady Zorrilla

80'

Carlos Pomares← S. Shashoua

80'

Álex López← Odei Onaindia

82'

Carlos Ruiz

82'

Simón Moreno↳ Iago López

84'

Pablo Larrea

86'

Alejandro López

87'

Etyan← Álex Corredera

90+2'

Raúl Lizoain

90+6'

Simón Moreno↳ Sergio Camello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TenerifeMirandes

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots11

6Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target6

7Off Target3

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

408Total Passes406

333Accurate Passes325

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Tenerife vs Mirandes

Mirandes beat Tenerife 2-1 in Segunda División on September 19, 2021.

Goals: Míchel (44' pen), Simón Moreno (82', 90+6').

Tenerife controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz in Tenerife.

Tenerife vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tenerife vs Mirandes