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Telstar W vs Twente W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Telstar W
Telstar W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Twente W
Twente W
11/4/2022Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 7BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Telstar W9%
×Draw14%
Twente W77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar W
0.95
Twente W
2.94

Twente W creates 209% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 73 away

creates per match

Telstar W
1.00
Twente W
2.81

allows per match

Telstar W
3.06
Twente W
0.90

finishing

Telstar W+0.00on par
Twente W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar W ↓

Twente W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Telstar W or draw
23%
Telstar W or Twente W
86%
Draw or Twente W
91%

Winning margin

Telstar W wins by 2+
3%
Twente W wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Telstar W 1+ goals
61%
Telstar W 2+ goals
25%
Telstar W 3+ goals
7%
Twente W 1+ goals
95%
Twente W 2+ goals
79%
Twente W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Telstar W (draw refunded)
11%
Twente W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.06 · 32 matches

Twente W away — creates 2.81, concedes 0.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar W attack 1.00 + Twente W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Twente W attack 2.81 + Telstar W defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Telstar W scores more
9%
level
14%
Twente W scores more
77%

Twente W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telstar W vs Twente W

Twente W beat Telstar W 4-0 in Eredivisie Women on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.