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Telstar vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
MVV
MVV
G. Plet 87'
R. Smit 49', 34', 28'
C. Giousis 20'
R. Van Helden 60'
K. Kostons 56'
J. Steuckers 24'
1/24/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Telstar47%
×Draw24%
MVV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.72
MVV
1.29

Telstar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 149 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.50
MVV
1.06

allows per match

Telstar
1.52
MVV
1.94

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
71%
Telstar or MVV
76%
Draw or MVV
53%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
25%
MVV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
82%
Telstar 2+ goals
51%
Telstar 3+ goals
25%
MVV 1+ goals
72%
MVV 2+ goals
37%
MVV 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
62%
MVV (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

MVV away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.50 + MVV defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

MVV attack 1.06 + Telstar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Telstar scores more
47%
level
24%
MVV scores more
29%

Telstar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
R. SmitTelstarTelstar · F
9.5

Match Events

20'
C. Giousis↳ T. Overtoom
24'
J. Steuckers↳ K. Kostons
28'
R. Smit↳ D. Blackson
34'
R. Smit↳ C. Giousis
49'
R. Smit↳ C. Giousis
51'
Rein Van Helden
56'
K. Kostons↳ S. Blummel
60'
R. Van Helden↳ K. Kostons
67'
J. Mulder← D. Blackson
75'
D. Min← C. Giousis
75'
J. Soares← A. Bensabouh
79'
J. Vijgen← S. Blummel
79'
M. Kleinen← J. Steuckers
86'
J. Turfkruier← T. Overtoom
86'
G. Plet← R. Smit
87'
G. Plet↳ Y. Boussakou

Possession

44%Telstar

Shots

31Telstar

Pass accuracy

48%Telstar

Statistics

TelstarMVV
Overview
44%Possession56%
31Total Shots16
10Corners3
7Fouls11
Shots
31Total Shots16
16On Target6
9Off Target6
6Blocked4
24Inside Box12
7Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
410Total Passes532
296Accurate Passes421
72%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves11
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Telstar vs MVV

Telstar beat MVV 5-3 in Eerste Divisie on January 24, 2023.

Goals: C. Giousis (20'), J. Steuckers (24'), R. Smit (28', 34', 49'), K. Kostons (56'), R. Van Helden (60'), G. Plet (87').

MVV controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 31.

The match was played at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.