Telstar 0–3 De Graafschap: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

De Graafschap

S. Hendriks 29', 26'

J. Opoku 5'

2/4/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 25BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Telstar36%

×Draw24%

De Graafschap40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchDe Graafschap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.60

Telstar

1.49

De Graafschap

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 132 away

1.50

creates per match

1.68

1.52

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Telstar

1.50

De Graafschap

1.68

allows per match

Telstar

1.52

De Graafschap

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

De Graafschap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

60%

Telstar or De Graafschap

76%

Draw or De Graafschap

64%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

17%

De Graafschap wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

77%

Telstar 2+ goals

44%

Telstar 3+ goals

19%

De Graafschap 1+ goals

80%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

47%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

47%

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.48 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.50 + De Graafschap defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + Telstar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Telstar scores more

36%

level

24%

De Graafschap scores more

40%

De Graafschap at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Hendriks

De Graafschap · F

8.3

Match Events

5'

J. Opoku↳ R. Baas

26'

Glynor Plet

26'

S. Hendriks

29'

S. Hendriks↳ J. Schuurman

48'

T. Gemert← J. Molenaar

63'

S. Akoy← R. Smit

65'

J. Konings← S. Hendriks

75'

P. Brittijn← M. Kaandorp

75'

E. Lieftink← J. Opoku

77'

Rashaan Fernandes

84'

R. Dekker← J. Schuurman

84'

H. Acheffay← G. Korte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TelstarDe

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots12

5Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots12

4On Target6

7Off Target4

7Blocked2

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

524Total Passes439

398Accurate Passes325

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1