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Teleoptik vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Teleoptik
Teleoptik
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
8/29/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik (Zemun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Teleoptik45%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teleoptik
1.40
Sindjelic Beograd
1.04

Teleoptik creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Teleoptik
1.00
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Teleoptik
1.33
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Teleoptik+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teleoptik ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Teleoptik or draw
72%
Teleoptik or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
55%

Winning margin

Teleoptik wins by 2+
22%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Teleoptik 1+ goals
75%
Teleoptik 2+ goals
41%
Teleoptik 3+ goals
17%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
65%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
28%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Teleoptik (draw refunded)
62%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teleoptik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teleoptik attack 1.00 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Teleoptik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Teleoptik scores more
45%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
28%

Teleoptik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Teleoptik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teleoptik vs Sindjelic Beograd

Teleoptik and Sindjelic Beograd drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Partizan-Teleoptik (Zemun).