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Telavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Telavi
Telavi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
11/10/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 33Kavkasioni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Telavi36%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Kutaisi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telavi
1.19
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 129 away

creates per match

Telavi
1.07
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.26

allows per match

Telavi
1.10
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.30

finishing

Telavi+0.00on par
Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telavi ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Telavi or draw
64%
Telavi or Torpedo Kutaisi
72%
Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi
64%

Winning margin

Telavi wins by 2+
15%
Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Telavi 1+ goals
70%
Telavi 2+ goals
33%
Telavi 3+ goals
12%
Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Telavi (draw refunded)
50%
Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telavi at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.10 · 102 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telavi attack 1.07 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.26 + Telavi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Telavi scores more
36%
level
28%
Torpedo Kutaisi scores more
36%

Telavi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Telavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Torpedo Kutaisi beat Telavi 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kavkasioni Arena in Telavi.