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Telavi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Telavi
Telavi
Preview
16:00
Samtredia
Samtredia
9/5/2026Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 24Kavkasioni Arena
Big match
58%
Telavi
model favours
58%24%18%

Telavi have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Telavi58%
×Draw24%
Samtredia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telavi
1.65
Samtredia
0.78

Telavi creates 112% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Telavi
1.97
Samtredia
1.16

allows per match

Telavi
0.40
Samtredia
1.33

finishing

Telavi+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telavi ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Telavi or draw
82%
Telavi or Samtredia
76%
Draw or Samtredia
42%

Winning margin

Telavi wins by 2+
32%
Samtredia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Telavi 1+ goals
81%
Telavi 2+ goals
49%
Telavi 3+ goals
23%
Samtredia 1+ goals
54%
Samtredia 2+ goals
18%
Samtredia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Telavi (draw refunded)
77%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telavi at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.40 · 30 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telavi attack 1.97 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.65

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Telavi defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Telavi scores more
58%
level
24%
Samtredia scores more
18%

Telavi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Telavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Telavi are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Samtredia score first in only 21% of matches
  • 74% of Samtredia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Samtredia win just 38% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Telavi
WWWWW
Samtredia
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Telavi host Samtredia

September 5, 2026: Telavi take on Samtredia in Erovnuli Liga 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Telavi host Samtredia at Kavkasioni Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.