Tekstilshchik 0–0 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

8/17/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 5Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tekstilshchik39%

×Draw28%

Volgar Astrakhan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.11

Tekstilshchik

1.23

Volgar Astrakhan

1.11

Tekstilshchik creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.41

creates per match

1.19

1.04

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.41

Volgar Astrakhan

1.19

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.04

Volgar Astrakhan

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

67%

Tekstilshchik or Volgar Astrakhan

72%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

61%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

17%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

71%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

35%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

13%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

67%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

30%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

54%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

39%

level

28%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

33%

Tekstilshchik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

I. Selemenev

57'

A. Pavlishin← D. Smirnov

59'

M. Polyakov

61'

A. Samsonov← O. Kalugin

61'

A. Evseev← I. Selemenev

69'

D. Gorovykh

70'

D. Mironov← D. Anosov

70'

A. Shcherbakov← A. Bakhtiyarov

74'

D. Mironov

76'

M. Ivakhnov← A. Skvortsov

76'

I. Matsigura← N. Kozlovskiy

79'

A. Pavlishin

82'

E. Krivokhizhin← D. Gorovykh

86'

N. Chistyakov

Tekstilshchik

Volgar

99

23

18

56

27

▼

Gorovykh

11

▼

Bakhtiyar

10

▼

Smirnov

77

Druzhinin

69

▼

17

24

51

33

12

91

3

4

9

23

▼

Kalugin

17

▼

Kozlovski

92

▼

Skvortsov

7

▼

Selemenev

Manager: D. Kirichenko

61'▲A. Samsonov←▼O. Kalugin

61'▲A. Evseev←▼I. Selemenev

76'▲M. Ivakhnov←▼A. Skvortsov

76'▲I. Matsigura←▼N. Kozlovskiy

Tekstilshchik substitutes

8Samsonov94Evseev56Ivakhnov71Matsigura10Volodkin11Razborov15Barkhanov16Bobrov30Ramazanov66Samylin93Solovyev96Likhachev

Manager: D. Klyuev

57'▲A. Pavlishin←▼D. Smirnov

70'▲D. Mironov←▼D. Anosov

70'▲A. Shcherbakov←▼A. Bakhtiyarov

82'▲E. Krivokhizhin←▼D. Gorovykh

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

7Pavlishin88Mironov90Shcherbakov6Krivokhizhin1Yampolskiy9Tatarinov58Zuev