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Tekstilshchik vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2026

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
4/7/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Tekstilshchik32%
×Draw28%
Volgar Astrakhan41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.10
Volgar Astrakhan
1.28

Volgar Astrakhan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.96
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.62
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
59%
Tekstilshchik or Volgar Astrakhan
72%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
68%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
13%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
67%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
30%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
10%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
72%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
37%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
44%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.96 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
32%
level
28%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
41%

Volgar Astrakhan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Volgar Astrakhan

Tekstilshchik and Volgar Astrakhan drew 1-1 in First League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.