Tekstilshchik vs Spartak Kostroma

Tekstilshchik

Preview

15:00

Spartak Kostroma

7/25/2026

First League · Round 3Stadion Tekstilshchik

Big match

39%

Tekstilshchik

model favours

39%28%33%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tekstilshchik39%

×Draw28%

Spartak Kostroma33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Tekstilshchik

1.21

Spartak Kostroma

1.10

Tekstilshchik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

1.53

0.67

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.00

Spartak Kostroma

1.53

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

0.67

Spartak Kostroma

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

67%

Tekstilshchik or Spartak Kostroma

72%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

61%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

17%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

70%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

34%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

12%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

67%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

30%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

54%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

39%

level

28%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

33%

Tekstilshchik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Tekstilshchik

LLWWW

Kostroma

WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff