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Tekstilshchik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5/22/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Stadion Tekstilshchik
Big match
39%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
model favours
34%27%39%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilshchik34%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 123 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
61%
Tekstilshchik or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
66%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
15%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
70%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
34%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
12%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
73%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
37%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
47%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
34%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
39%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tekstilshchik
LLWWL
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tekstilshchik face Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League)

First League returns with Tekstilshchik hosting Shinnik Yaroslavl. Match starts May 22, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tekstilshchik host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Stadion Tekstilshchik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.