Tekstilshchik 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

A. Radchenko 44'

E. Nizamutdinov 41' (pen)

8/10/2019

First League · Round 7Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilshchik35%

×Draw27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Tekstilshchik

1.23

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 124 away

0.98

creates per match

1.00

1.63

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

0.98

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.63

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

61%

Tekstilshchik or Shinnik Yaroslavl

73%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

65%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

15%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

71%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

35%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

13%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

73%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

38%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

47%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.98 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.00 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

35%

level

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

39%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

28'

32'

40'

41'

E. NizamutdinovPenalty

43'

I. Viznovich

44'

A. Radchenko

46'

E. Popov← M. Sidorov

46'

V. Zinkov← V. Aleynikov

46'

A. Pugin← A. Ektov

46'

I. Oleynikov← I. Viznovich

55'

E. Marichev

59'

E. Andreev← I. Yurchenko

72'

T. Pukhov← E. Nizamutdinov

78'

A. Shchanitsyn← E. Marichev

90+2'

R. Putilin← M. Gaydukov

Tekstilshchik

Shinnik

16

3

94

2

13

27

▼

Aleynikov

8

Kozhemyak

20

▼

Ektov

9

⚽

▼

Nizamutdi

22

Samodin

98

▼

1

20

17

6

7

15

▼

Gaydukov

11

▼

Sidorov

22

▼

Marichev

18

Mukhametz

12

⚽

Radchenko

25

▼

Yurchenko

Manager: D. Boyarintsev

46'▲E. Popov←▼M. Sidorov

59'▲E. Andreev←▼I. Yurchenko

78'▲A. Shchanitsyn←▼E. Marichev

90+2'▲R. Putilin←▼M. Gaydukov

Tekstilshchik substitutes

19Popov21Andreev13Shchanitsyn5Putilin14Tregulov16Zirikov23Makushkin

Manager: A. Pobegalov

46'▲V. Zinkov←▼V. Aleynikov

46'▲A. Pugin←▼A. Ektov

46'▲I. Oleynikov←▼I. Viznovich

72'▲T. Pukhov←▼E. Nizamutdinov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

5Zinkov7Pugin10Oleynikov11Pukhov1Antipin4Steshin45Betyuzhnov50Vovk77Gongapshev88Bakaev97Goshev99Matskharashvili

First League: Tekstilshchik 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Tekstilshchik and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 1-1 in First League on August 10, 2019.

Goals: E. Nizamutdinov (41' pen), A. Radchenko (44').

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.

Tekstilshchik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Tekstilshchik 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl