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Tekstilshchik vs FC UFA — First League 2024

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
Preview
14:00
FC UFA
FC UFA
7/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Tekstilshchik
48%
Tekstilshchik
model favours
48%31%21%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
73%
under 2.5 goals
33%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tekstilshchik48%
×Draw31%
FC UFA21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.16
FC UFA
0.66

Tekstilshchik creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
1.00
FC UFA
0.65

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
0.67
FC UFA
1.32

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
79%
Tekstilshchik or FC UFA
69%
Draw or FC UFA
52%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
21%
FC UFA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
69%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
32%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
11%
FC UFA 1+ goals
48%
FC UFA 2+ goals
14%
FC UFA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
70%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.00 + FC UFA defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

FC UFA attack 0.65 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
48%
level
31%
FC UFA scores more
21%

Tekstilshchik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running
  • Tekstilshchik sit 11, FC UFA 1 in the table
  • Tekstilshchik and FC UFA have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tekstilshchik
LLWWW
UFA
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tekstilshchik face FC UFA (First League)

First League returns with Tekstilshchik hosting FC UFA. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tekstilshchik host FC UFA at Stadion Tekstilshchik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.