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Tekstilshchik vs Enisey — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
Preview
16:00
Enisey
Enisey
11/28/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Tekstilshchik
Big match
39%
Enisey
model favours
34%27%39%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilshchik34%
×Draw27%
Enisey39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.19
Enisey
1.31

Enisey creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 124 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
Enisey
1.02

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
Enisey
1.44

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
61%
Tekstilshchik or Enisey
73%
Draw or Enisey
66%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
14%
Enisey wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
70%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
33%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
12%
Enisey 1+ goals
73%
Enisey 2+ goals
38%
Enisey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
46%
Enisey (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Enisey attack 1.02 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
34%
level
27%
Enisey scores more
39%

Enisey at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running
  • Enisey have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tekstilshchik
LLWWL
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tekstilshchik face Enisey (First League)

First League returns with Tekstilshchik hosting Enisey. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tekstilshchik host Enisey at Stadion Tekstilshchik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.