Tecnico Universitario 0–0 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Tecnico Universitario

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manta FC

9/19/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 7Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tecnico Universitario54%

×Draw24%

Manta FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.05

Tecnico Universitario

1.76

Manta FC

1.05

Tecnico Universitario creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.51

creates per match

0.89

1.21

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.51

Manta FC

0.89

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.21

Manta FC

2.01

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Tecnico Universitario-0.01on par

Manta FC-0.22scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

77%

Tecnico Universitario or Manta FC

76%

Draw or Manta FC

46%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

30%

Manta FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

83%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

52%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

26%

Manta FC 1+ goals

65%

Manta FC 2+ goals

28%

Manta FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

71%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.51 + Manta FC defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.76

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

54%

level

24%

Manta FC scores more

23%

Tecnico Universitario at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

J. Flor← A. Moreira

45+2'

Alejandro Javier Frezzotti

46'

J. García← A. Frezzotti

49'

José Flor

54'

Christopher Tutalcha

56'

Julio Dominguez

56'

E. Méndez← J. Jiménez

59'

Alexis Santacruz

62'

Eddie Guevara

65'

Á. Ledesma← C. Cuero

68'

L. Estupiñán← C. Tutalchá

75'

E. Rodríguez← A. Santacruz

78'

J. Rezabala← R. Ordóñez

78'

D. Patiño← G. Bustamante

84'

Daniel Patino

90+1'

Edwin Miguel Mendez Escobar

Possession

Shots

Statistics

TecnicoManta

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots6

9Corners4

17Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots6

4On Target3

5Off Target3

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides5