Tecnico Universitario 0–1 Macara: Result & Stats

Tecnico Universitario

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Macara

R. Champang 57'

11/18/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 8Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tecnico Universitario43%

×Draw26%

Macara31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.16

Tecnico Universitario

1.41

Macara

1.16

Tecnico Universitario creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.51

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.51

Macara

1.10

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.21

Macara

1.30

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Tecnico Universitario-0.01on par

Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

69%

Tecnico Universitario or Macara

74%

Draw or Macara

57%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

20%

Macara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

76%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

41%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

17%

Macara 1+ goals

69%

Macara 2+ goals

32%

Macara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

58%

Macara (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.51 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Macara attack 1.10 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

43%

level

26%

Macara scores more

31%

Tecnico Universitario at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

13'

15'

46'

57'

R. Champang↳ A. Rodríguez

74'

F. Mora← A. Rodríguez

76'

80'

80'

82'

83'

G. Corozo← J. Uchuari

86'

E. Patta← I. Zambrano

90+5'

M. C. Lemo

90+3'

J. Santacruz← Á. Viotti

90'

K. Arce← R. Champang

Tecnico

Macara

22

Silva

8

Quiñónez

19

▼

5

20

15

11

▼

Uchuari

70

⚽

▼

Champang

14

Garcés

24

A

▼

9

1

2

6

11

14

22

20

▼

Méndez

21

Jiménez

26

Santacruz

8

▼

Zambrano

7

▼

Patta

Manager: J. Hernández

46'▲J. Muñoz←▼E. Méndez

80'▲C. Romero←▼H. Patta

86'▲E. Patta←▼I. Zambrano

Tecnico Universitario substitutes

10Muñoz40Romero24Patta17Oñate44Valencia89Lituma

Manager: P. Vélez

74'▲F. Mora←▼A. Rodríguez

83'▲G. Corozo←▼J. Uchuari

90+3'▲J. Santacruz←▼Á. Viotti

90'▲K. Arce←▼R. Champang

Macara substitutes

16Mora26Corozo27Santacruz30Arce21Cruz40Rodríguez6Schmidt4Enríquez25Espinosa10Feraud18Lucas