Team Rhino 0–0 Brikama United: Result & Stats

Team Rhino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brikama United

12/9/2023

GFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Team Rhino35%

×Draw32%

Brikama United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team RhinoExpected goals in this matchBrikama United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.96

Team Rhino

0.97

Brikama United

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 89 away

0.87

creates per match

0.97

0.95

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Team Rhino

0.87

Brikama United

0.97

allows per match

Team Rhino

0.95

Brikama United

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team Rhino+0.00on par

Brikama United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Rhino ↓

Brikama United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Team Rhino or draw

66%

Team Rhino or Brikama United

68%

Draw or Brikama United

65%

Winning margin

Team Rhino wins by 2+

13%

Brikama United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Team Rhino 1+ goals

62%

Team Rhino 2+ goals

25%

Team Rhino 3+ goals

7%

Brikama United 1+ goals

62%

Brikama United 2+ goals

25%

Brikama United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Team Rhino (draw refunded)

50%

Brikama United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Rhino at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Brikama United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Rhino attack 0.87 + Brikama United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Brikama United attack 0.97 + Team Rhino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Team Rhino scores more

35%

level

32%

Brikama United scores more

34%

Team Rhino at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Team Rhino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff