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Tauro FC vs Plaza Amador — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Tauro FC
Tauro FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
2/9/2025Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 4Estadio Rommel Fernandez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Tauro FC37%
×Draw29%
Plaza Amador33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauro FC
1.14
Plaza Amador
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 137 away

creates per match

Tauro FC
1.33
Plaza Amador
1.27

allows per match

Tauro FC
0.86
Plaza Amador
0.95

finishing

Tauro FC+0.00on par
Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauro FC ↓

Plaza Amador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tauro FC or draw
67%
Tauro FC or Plaza Amador
71%
Draw or Plaza Amador
63%

Winning margin

Tauro FC wins by 2+
15%
Plaza Amador wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tauro FC 1+ goals
68%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
32%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
11%
Plaza Amador 1+ goals
65%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
29%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tauro FC (draw refunded)
53%
Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauro FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 138 matches

Plaza Amador away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauro FC attack 1.33 + Plaza Amador defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Plaza Amador attack 1.27 + Tauro FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tauro FC scores more
37%
level
29%
Plaza Amador scores more
33%

Tauro FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Tauro FC 4–0 Plaza Amador

Tauro FC beat Plaza Amador 4-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rommel Fernandez in Panama City.