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Tauro FC vs Independiente de La Chorrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Tauro FC
Tauro FC
Preview
01:30
Independiente de La Chorrera
Independiente de La Chorrera
8/29/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 6Estadio Rommel Fernandez
Big match
39%
Tauro FC
model favours
39%28%33%

Independiente de La Chorrera raise their game against the top half — 43% wins vs the upper half, only 35% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Tauro FC39%
×Draw28%
Independiente de La Chorrera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauro FC
1.22
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.11

Tauro FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 129 away

creates per match

Tauro FC
1.33
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.37

allows per match

Tauro FC
0.86
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.10

finishing

Tauro FC+0.00on par
Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauro FC ↓

Independiente de La Chorrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tauro FC or draw
67%
Tauro FC or Independiente de La Chorrera
72%
Draw or Independiente de La Chorrera
61%

Winning margin

Tauro FC wins by 2+
17%
Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tauro FC 1+ goals
70%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
34%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
12%
Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals
67%
Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals
30%
Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tauro FC (draw refunded)
54%
Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauro FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 138 matches

Independiente de La Chorrera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauro FC attack 1.33 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.37 + Tauro FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tauro FC scores more
39%
level
28%
Independiente de La Chorrera scores more
33%

Tauro FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
LLDWL
Chorrera
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tauro FC face Independiente de La Chorrera (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)

Liga Panameña de Fútbol returns with Tauro FC hosting Independiente de La Chorrera. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tauro FC host Independiente de La Chorrera at Estadio Rommel Fernandez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.