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Taunton Town vs Weston-super-Mare — League #60 2026

Taunton Town
Taunton Town
CANC
14:00
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare
4/5/2021League #60League #60 · Southern South - 36Cygnet Health Care Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taunton Town42%
×Draw27%
Weston-super-Mare31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taunton Town
1.32
Weston-super-Mare
1.10

Taunton Town creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Taunton Town
1.25
Weston-super-Mare
1.20

allows per match

Taunton Town
1.00
Weston-super-Mare
1.40

finishing

Taunton Town+0.00on par
Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taunton Town ↓

Weston-super-Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Taunton Town or draw
69%
Taunton Town or Weston-super-Mare
73%
Draw or Weston-super-Mare
58%

Winning margin

Taunton Town wins by 2+
19%
Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Taunton Town 1+ goals
73%
Taunton Town 2+ goals
38%
Taunton Town 3+ goals
15%
Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals
67%
Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals
30%
Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Taunton Town (draw refunded)
57%
Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taunton Town at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Weston-super-Mare away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taunton Town attack 1.25 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.20 + Taunton Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Taunton Town scores more
42%
level
27%
Weston-super-Mare scores more
31%

Taunton Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Taunton Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Taunton Town host Weston-super-Mare

April 5, 2021: Taunton Town take on Weston-super-Mare in League #60. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Taunton Town host Weston-super-Mare at Cygnet Health Care Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.