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Tatran Všechovice vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
FT
1 – 1
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
8/15/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 3Hrište Všechovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Tatran Všechovice51%
×Draw21%
Viktorie Přerov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Všechovice
2.21
Viktorie Přerov
1.64

Tatran Všechovice creates 35% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 53 away

creates per match

Tatran Všechovice
2.07
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Tatran Všechovice
1.76
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Všechovice ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tatran Všechovice or draw
71%
Tatran Všechovice or Viktorie Přerov
79%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
49%

Winning margin

Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
30%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
89%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
65%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
38%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
81%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
49%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
64%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Všechovice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Všechovice attack 2.07 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.21

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Tatran Všechovice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tatran Všechovice scores more
51%
level
21%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
29%

Tatran Všechovice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tatran Všechovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Všechovice vs Viktorie Přerov

Tatran Všechovice and Viktorie Přerov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Hrište Všechovice in Všechovice.