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Tatran Všechovice vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
10/2/20224. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 9Hrište Všechovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tatran Všechovice55%
×Draw20%
HFK Olomouc25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Všechovice
2.26
HFK Olomouc
1.48

Tatran Všechovice creates 53% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tatran Všechovice
2.07
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Tatran Všechovice
1.76
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Všechovice ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tatran Všechovice or draw
75%
Tatran Všechovice or HFK Olomouc
80%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
45%

Winning margin

Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
34%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
89%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
66%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
39%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
77%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
43%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
69%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Všechovice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Všechovice attack 2.07 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.26

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Tatran Všechovice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tatran Všechovice scores more
55%
level
20%
HFK Olomouc scores more
25%

Tatran Všechovice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tatran Všechovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Tatran Všechovice 2–0 HFK Olomouc

Tatran Všechovice beat HFK Olomouc 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Hrište Všechovice in Všechovice.