Tartu Kalev 2–1 Narva U21: Result & Stats

Tartu Kalev

FT

2 – 1

Narva U21

3/3/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 1Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tartu Kalev49%

×Draw21%

Narva U2129%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu KalevExpected goals in this matchNarva U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.57

Tartu Kalev

2.08

Narva U21

1.57

Tartu Kalev creates 32% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

2.17

creates per match

1.64

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tartu Kalev

2.17

Narva U21

1.64

allows per match

Tartu Kalev

1.50

Narva U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Narva U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Narva U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw

71%

Tartu Kalev or Narva U21

79%

Draw or Narva U21

51%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+

29%

Narva U21 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals

87%

Tartu Kalev 2+ goals

61%

Tartu Kalev 3+ goals

34%

Narva U21 1+ goals

79%

Narva U21 2+ goals

46%

Narva U21 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)

63%

Narva U21 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Narva U21 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.17 + Narva U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Narva U21 attack 1.64 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more

49%

level

21%

Narva U21 scores more

29%

Tartu Kalev at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff