Taroona 3–4 South East Utd. U21: Result & Stats

Taroona

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

South East Utd. U21

6/29/2024

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 12Sherburd Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Taroona43%

×Draw18%

South East Utd. U2140%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaroonaExpected goals in this matchSouth East Utd. U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.22

3.10

Taroona

3.22

South East Utd. U21

3.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

3.96

creates per match

4.29

1.92

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Taroona

3.96

South East Utd. U21

4.29

allows per match

Taroona

1.92

South East Utd. U21

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taroona+0.00on par

South East Utd. U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taroona ↓

South East Utd. U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

86%14%4.5

73%27%

Double chance

Taroona or draw

60%

Taroona or South East Utd. U21

82%

Draw or South East Utd. U21

57%

Winning margin

Taroona wins by 2+

27%

South East Utd. U21 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Taroona 1+ goals

96%

Taroona 2+ goals

82%

Taroona 3+ goals

61%

South East Utd. U21 1+ goals

95%

South East Utd. U21 2+ goals

81%

South East Utd. U21 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Taroona (draw refunded)

52%

South East Utd. U21 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

89%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taroona at home — creates 3.96, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

South East Utd. U21 away — creates 4.29, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taroona attack 3.96 + South East Utd. U21 defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 3.22

South East Utd. U21 attack 4.29 + Taroona defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Taroona scores more

43%

level

18%

South East Utd. U21 scores more

40%

Taroona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Taroona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff