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Taroona vs Clarence Zebras II — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Taroona
Taroona
FT
3 – 0
Clarence Zebras II
Clarence Zebras II
3/16/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 1KGV Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Taroona80%
×Draw11%
Clarence Zebras II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taroona
4.58
Clarence Zebras II
1.72

Taroona creates 166% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Taroona
3.96
Clarence Zebras II
1.52

allows per match

Taroona
1.92
Clarence Zebras II
5.20

finishing

Taroona+0.00on par
Clarence Zebras II+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taroona ↓

Clarence Zebras II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Taroona or draw
90%
Taroona or Clarence Zebras II
89%
Draw or Clarence Zebras II
20%

Winning margin

Taroona wins by 2+
64%
Clarence Zebras II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Taroona 1+ goals
99%
Taroona 2+ goals
93%
Taroona 3+ goals
80%
Clarence Zebras II 1+ goals
82%
Clarence Zebras II 2+ goals
51%
Clarence Zebras II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Taroona (draw refunded)
89%
Clarence Zebras II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taroona at home — creates 3.96, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Clarence Zebras II away — creates 1.52, concedes 5.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taroona attack 3.96 + Clarence Zebras II defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 4.58

Clarence Zebras II attack 1.52 + Taroona defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Taroona scores more
80%
level
11%
Clarence Zebras II scores more
10%

Taroona at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Taroona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Southern Championship: Taroona 3–0 Clarence Zebras II

Taroona beat Clarence Zebras II 3-0 in Tasmania Southern Championship on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at KGV Football Park in Hobart.