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Taraz vs Shakhter Karagandy — Cup 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
4/10/2019CupCup · 8th FinalsOrtalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Taraz44%
×Draw25%
Shakhter Karagandy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
1.56
Shakhter Karagandy
1.25

Taraz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.46
Shakhter Karagandy
1.42

allows per match

Taraz
1.08
Shakhter Karagandy
1.67

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
69%
Taraz or Shakhter Karagandy
75%
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy
56%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
22%
Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
79%
Taraz 2+ goals
46%
Taraz 3+ goals
21%
Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
71%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
36%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
59%
Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.46 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.42 + Taraz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Taraz scores more
44%
level
25%
Shakhter Karagandy scores more
31%

Taraz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Taraz 2–0 Shakhter Karagandy

Taraz beat Shakhter Karagandy 2-0 in Cup on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Taraz.