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Taraz vs Aktobe Jas — 1. Division 2026

1. Division1. Division·2026📍Central Stadium
Taraz
Taraz
48'
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aktobe Jas
Aktobe Jas
D. Usyk 4'
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 1:00 PM
Tournament
1. Division · Regular Season - 14
Venue
Central Stadium, Taraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taraz74%
×Draw14%
Aktobe Jas12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
3.27
Aktobe Jas
1.32

Taraz creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.78
Aktobe Jas
1.75

allows per match

Taraz
0.89
Aktobe Jas
4.75

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Aktobe Jas+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Aktobe Jas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
88%
Taraz or Aktobe Jas
86%
Draw or Aktobe Jas
26%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
55%
Aktobe Jas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
96%
Taraz 2+ goals
83%
Taraz 3+ goals
62%
Aktobe Jas 1+ goals
73%
Aktobe Jas 2+ goals
38%
Aktobe Jas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
86%
Aktobe Jas (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Aktobe Jas away — creates 1.75, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.78 + Aktobe Jas defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.27

Aktobe Jas attack 1.75 + Taraz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Taraz scores more
74%
level
14%
Aktobe Jas scores more
12%

Taraz at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
D. Usyk↳ H. Arturovich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taraz vs Aktobe Jas

Taraz vs Aktobe Jas is underway in 1. Division — it's 0-1 after 48 minutes.

Most recent goal: D. Usyk (4').