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Tarancón vs Albacete II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Tarancón
Tarancón
CANC
00:00
Albacete II
Albacete II
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 31Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Tarancón38%
×Draw28%
Albacete II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarancón
1.22
Albacete II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tarancón
1.34
Albacete II
1.38

allows per match

Tarancón
0.91
Albacete II
1.09

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par
Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Albacete II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw
66%
Tarancón or Albacete II
72%
Draw or Albacete II
62%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+
16%
Albacete II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals
70%
Tarancón 2+ goals
34%
Tarancón 3+ goals
12%
Albacete II 1+ goals
68%
Albacete II 2+ goals
32%
Albacete II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)
52%
Albacete II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tarancón scores more
38%
level
28%
Albacete II scores more
34%

Tarancón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tarancón face Albacete II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 returns with Tarancón hosting Albacete II. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tarancón host Albacete II at Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.