Tanjong Pagar 2–1 Albirex Niigata S: Result & Stats

Tanjong Pagar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albirex Niigata S

F. Roslan 86' (pen)

S. Cissé 74'

S. Nakano 16'

7/12/2024

Premier League · Round 8Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Tanjong Pagar23%

×Draw20%

Albirex Niigata S57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanjong PagarExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata S

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.35

Tanjong Pagar

1.45

Albirex Niigata S

2.35

Albirex Niigata S creates 62% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 82 away

1.39

creates per match

2.20

2.50

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tanjong Pagar

1.39

Albirex Niigata S

2.20

allows per match

Tanjong Pagar

2.50

Albirex Niigata S

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanjong Pagar ↓

Albirex Niigata S →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tanjong Pagar or draw

43%

Tanjong Pagar or Albirex Niigata S

80%

Draw or Albirex Niigata S

77%

Winning margin

Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+

10%

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals

77%

Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals

42%

Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals

18%

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

90%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

68%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)

29%

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanjong Pagar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 70 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.39 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.45

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tanjong Pagar scores more

23%

level

20%

Albirex Niigata S scores more

57%

Albirex Niigata S at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. Nakano

45+2'

S. Paunovic

50'

S. Akmal

52'

S. MikuniGoal Disallowed - offside

58'

S. Suhaimi← S. Masnawi

67'

G. Low

74'

S. Cissé

84'

H. Sunny

86'

F. RoslanPenalty

90+2'

A. Akbar← R. Ramadhani

90+5'

S. Saifuddin← S. Cissé

90+2'

S. Bashir← A. Igami

90'

W. Ho← S. Firdaus

Tanjong

Albirex

18

41

4

10

28

11

15

▼

Firdaus

52

Yoshimura

6

▼

Igami

9

Hoshino

58

⚽

Nakano

1

Ekamparam

15

⚽

4

5

10

25

8

▼

Ramadhani

21

Paunović

9

⚽

▼

Cissé

17

▼

Masnawi

11

Mota

Manager: H. Jailani

58'▲S. Suhaimi←▼S. Masnawi

90+2'▲A. Akbar←▼R. Ramadhani

90+5'▲S. Saifuddin←▼S. Cissé

Tanjong Pagar substitutes

32Suhaimi6Akbar66Saifuddin18Iskandar28Kimura57Hadi62Aaqil51Danial59Basiron

Manager: K. Yoshinaga

90+2'▲S. Bashir←▼A. Igami

90'▲W. Ho←▼S. Firdaus

Albirex Niigata S substitutes

19Bashir24Ho1Pereira20Shamim25Gulam31Martens42Kamarudin53Norhisam54Austin