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Tanjong Pagar vs Albirex Niigata S — Premier League 2019

Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Albirex Niigata S
Albirex Niigata S
10/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Tanjong Pagar23%
×Draw20%
Albirex Niigata S57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanjong Pagar
1.45
Albirex Niigata S
2.35

Albirex Niigata S creates 62% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tanjong Pagar
1.39
Albirex Niigata S
2.20

allows per match

Tanjong Pagar
2.50
Albirex Niigata S
1.51

finishing

Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanjong Pagar ↓

Albirex Niigata S →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tanjong Pagar or draw
43%
Tanjong Pagar or Albirex Niigata S
80%
Draw or Albirex Niigata S
77%

Winning margin

Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
10%
Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
77%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
42%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
18%
Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals
90%
Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals
68%
Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
29%
Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanjong Pagar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 70 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.39 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.45

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tanjong Pagar scores more
23%
level
20%
Albirex Niigata S scores more
57%

Albirex Niigata S at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tanjong Pagar 4–4 Albirex Niigata S

Tanjong Pagar and Albirex Niigata S drew 4-4 in Premier League on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Jurong East Stadium in Singapore.