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Tanabi SP U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
Preview
18:00
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
41%
Referencia U20
model favours
33%25%41%

Tanabi SP U20 and Referencia U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanabi SP U2033%
×Draw25%
Referencia U2041%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi SP U20
1.32
Referencia U20
1.50

Referencia U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20
0.76
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20
1.53
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw
59%
Tanabi SP U20 or Referencia U20
75%
Draw or Referencia U20
67%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
15%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
73%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
38%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
15%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
78%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
44%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
45%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more
33%
level
25%
Referencia U20 scores more
41%

Referencia U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LLLLW
U20
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tanabi SP U20 host Referencia U20

September 4, 2026: Tanabi SP U20 take on Referencia U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.