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Tanabi SP U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
Preview
18:00
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
8/7/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 10
63%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
15%22%63%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanabi SP U2015%
×Draw22%
Palmeiras U2063%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi SP U20
0.75
Palmeiras U20
1.84

Palmeiras U20 creates 145% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20
0.76
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20
1.53
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw
37%
Tanabi SP U20 or Palmeiras U20
78%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
85%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
4%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
53%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
17%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
4%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
84%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
55%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
19%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.75

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more
15%
level
22%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
63%

Palmeiras U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • 65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Tanabi SP U20 sit 44, Palmeiras U20 17 in the table
  • 31% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Tanabi SP U20 and Palmeiras U20 have never met before
  • 20% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLLLW
U20
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tanabi SP U20 face Palmeiras U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Tanabi SP U20 hosting Palmeiras U20. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.