Tanabi SP U20 vs Flamengo SP U20

Tanabi SP U20

Preview

18:00

Flamengo SP U20

8/14/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 12

52%

Tanabi SP U20

model favours

52%23%25%

Flamengo SP U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanabi SP U2052%

×Draw23%

Flamengo SP U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanabi SP U20Expected goals in this matchFlamengo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Tanabi SP U20

1.82

Flamengo SP U20

1.21

Tanabi SP U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.76

creates per match

0.88

1.53

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20

0.76

Flamengo SP U20

0.88

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20

1.53

Flamengo SP U20

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw

75%

Tanabi SP U20 or Flamengo SP U20

77%

Draw or Flamengo SP U20

48%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+

29%

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals

84%

Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals

54%

Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals

27%

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals

70%

Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals

34%

Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more

52%

level

23%

Flamengo SP U20 scores more

25%

Tanabi SP U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tanabi SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Tanabi SP U20 sit 44, Flamengo SP U20 30 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LLLLW

U20

WDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff