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Tamworth vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

Tamworth
Tamworth
Preview
18:45
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
9/30/2026League #43League #43 · Round 11The Lamb Ground
Big match
38%
Sutton Utd
model favours
32%30%38%

82% of Tamworth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tamworth32%
×Draw30%
Sutton Utd38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamworth
1.00
Sutton Utd
1.12

Sutton Utd creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tamworth
0.80
Sutton Utd
1.24

allows per match

Tamworth
1.00
Sutton Utd
1.20

finishing

Tamworth+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamworth ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tamworth or draw
62%
Tamworth or Sutton Utd
70%
Draw or Sutton Utd
68%

Winning margin

Tamworth wins by 2+
12%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tamworth 1+ goals
63%
Tamworth 2+ goals
26%
Tamworth 3+ goals
8%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
67%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
31%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tamworth (draw refunded)
46%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamworth at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamworth attack 0.80 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Tamworth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tamworth scores more
32%
level
30%
Sutton Utd scores more
38%

Sutton Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Tamworth score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (82% and 61% over 2.5)
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Tamworth sit 14, Sutton Utd 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tamworth
LWLWW
Utd
DLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tamworth face Sutton Utd (League #43)

League #43 returns with Tamworth hosting Sutton Utd. Match starts September 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tamworth host Sutton Utd at The Lamb Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.