Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tampines Rovers vs Tanjong Pagar — Premier League 2019

Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
10/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Town Square at Our Tampines Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Tampines Rovers63%
×Draw18%
Tanjong Pagar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampines Rovers
2.70
Tanjong Pagar
1.44

Tampines Rovers creates 88% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 70 away

creates per match

Tampines Rovers
2.51
Tanjong Pagar
1.47

allows per match

Tampines Rovers
1.41
Tanjong Pagar
2.89

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par
Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Tanjong Pagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw
81%
Tampines Rovers or Tanjong Pagar
82%
Draw or Tanjong Pagar
37%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
43%
Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
93%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
75%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
50%
Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
76%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
42%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
77%
Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Tanjong Pagar away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.51 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.70

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.47 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more
63%
level
18%
Tanjong Pagar scores more
19%

Tampines Rovers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tampines Rovers 4–3 Tanjong Pagar

Tampines Rovers beat Tanjong Pagar 4-3 in Premier League on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Town Square at Our Tampines Hub in Singapore.