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Tampines Rovers vs Geylang International — Premier League 2019

Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geylang International
Geylang International
6/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Town Square at Our Tampines Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Tampines Rovers52%
×Draw21%
Geylang International28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampines Rovers
2.22
Geylang International
1.59

Tampines Rovers creates 40% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tampines Rovers
2.51
Geylang International
1.78

allows per match

Tampines Rovers
1.41
Geylang International
1.93

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par
Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Geylang International →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw
72%
Tampines Rovers or Geylang International
79%
Draw or Geylang International
48%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
31%
Geylang International wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
89%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
65%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
38%
Geylang International 1+ goals
80%
Geylang International 2+ goals
47%
Geylang International 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
65%
Geylang International (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.51 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.22

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more
52%
level
21%
Geylang International scores more
28%

Tampines Rovers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampines Rovers vs Geylang International

Tampines Rovers beat Geylang International 2-0 in Premier League on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Town Square at Our Tampines Hub in Singapore.